GableIndex Weekly, Issue 1: Portugal leads EU house price growth

Good morning. Welcome to the first issue: Portugal leads the EU on price growth, and that's squeezing Lisbon's rental yield.

1) The Number

+16.5%

The rise in Portugal's house price index in the year to 2026 Q2, the fastest of the 26 EU countries with Q2 data.

• Why it matters: price growth this fast outpaces rents, which pushes estimated yields down (see City Movers).
• The big picture: France was one of only a few countries where prices fell (−0.8% y/y). Germany was flat at +0.6%.

Source: Eurostat prc_hpi_q, all dwellings, released 1 Oct 2026. Eurostat is not responsible for this use.

2) City Movers

Estimated gross rental yields, latest period for each city.

City	Est. gross yield	Change	Period
Lisbon	4.07%	−0.09 pts vs 2025Q4	2026Q1
Porto	4.89%	n/a	2026Q1
County Dublin	5.53%	n/a	2025Q4

Estimated gross rental yield, GableIndex calculation from INE rent (0014696) and price (0012234) data (Lisbon, Porto) and from CSO/RTB rent (RIQ02) and Property Price Register median sale price data (Dublin); before costs, taxes and vacancy. Sources: Instituto Nacional de Estatística – Portugal (CC BY 4.0), modified by GableIndex; CSO/RTB (CC BY 4.0); PSRA Property Price Register. Data as of 14 Oct 2026.

• Lisbon: down 0.09 pts on the previous quarter (4.16% in 2025Q4) and 0.21 pts over three quarters (4.28% in 2025Q3). Over those three quarters the median price per m² rose 8.3% and the median rent 2.9%.
• Porto: a lower price per m² (€3,510 vs €5,082) puts its estimate well above Lisbon's.
• County Dublin: the highest rents in Ireland keep its estimate above Ireland's 26-county median of 5.24%.

See Portugal's house price data

3) Policy Watch

Portugal's 2026 IMT tables: the transfer-tax brackets were updated from 1 January 2026 by the 2026 Budget Law (Lei n.º 73-A/2025). On a €300,000 second home on the mainland, IMT plus 0.8% stamp duty (TGIS item 1.1) comes to €14,005.50.

• Why it matters: this applies to any buyer of a home that won't be their permanent residence, including overseas buyers.
• What's next: no scheduled change announced.

Source: AT Ofício Circulado 40129/2026; TGIS.

Also on GableIndex: Buying property in France: the full process, taxes and hidden costs

Yields are GableIndex estimates, before costs.
Information only. Not financial, investment, tax or legal advice.